Filed Under: North Korea, Nuclear Issues, Politics, U.S.-DPRK relations

On October 1, 2009, the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS hosted a discussion between Joel Wit and Robert Carlin strategies for successful dialogue and reengagement with North Korea. Wit and Carlin drew on their personal and professional experiences with the North Korean regime, as well as on Wit’s latest report, “U.S. Strategy Towards North Korea: Rebuilding Dialogue and Engagement,” a joint U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS and Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University joint publication, to offer the Obama adminstration a comprehensive action plan for improving U.S.-DPRK relations.

Joel Wit opened the session by summarizing recommendations for a new U.S. policy toward North Korea. Emphasizing that North Korea is beyond the point of giving up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for economic and political incentives, he suggested that the U.S. leave behind the transactional approach of the Clinton and Bush administrations in exchange for a transformational strategy that will build a deeper and more robust relationship with Pyongyang. Rather than focusing narrowly on nuclear and missile issues, Wit advocated building up the U.S.’s positive leverage over North Korea. That is, all of the economic, political, energy, and other “building blocks” that the U.S. can use to develop a durable relationship with North Korea. Wit also highlighted the parts that nongovernmental organizations and military-to-military relations might play in securing a broader form of engagement with North Korea, and in helping its society and economy open to the outside world.

Offering policy recommendations, Wit offered that North Korea might be brought to sign on to the newly-drafted UN Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism as a way of allaying American concerns about potential proliferation. He also highlighted an earlier suggestion from the North Korean side that the Yongbyon facility might be refurbished and transformed into a peaceful research facility for the North’s nuclear scientists. While these would be relatively short-term steps that could get engagement on the right track, Wit stressed that the transformative approach would require a long-term and patient commitment from the U.S.

Robert Carlin followed with observations of his recent visit to Pyongyang. He described various vignettes that revealed North Korea today as a different place than most imagine. Hotels have been refurbished and services available to visiting foreigners expanded. Cellphone service has been restored, and the devices are apparently quite common. Carlin talked of the streets of Pyongyang being filled with traffic, including taxis and a large number of motorcycles. The markets in Pyongyang are busy and people appear to have the money to buy some luxury items. Restrictions on foreigners have been relaxed to the point that Carlin reports he was able, on occasion, to take strolls in the city, where he noted a large amount of construction. It appears that North Korea’s light industry and suppliers of consumer goods are functioning well, despite sanctions.

During the question and answer session, Wit and Carlin reflected on how negotiations with North Korea have changed since the 1990s, saying that the break that occurred when the Bush administration took office in 2000 had a powerful impact on the North Korean mindset, and that North Koreans no longer see negotiating away their nuclear weapons as an attractive possibility.

Download event transcript here.

Joel S. Wit is a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University and an adjunct senior research fellow at the Weatherhead East Asia Institute at Columbia University. Wit is a former State Department official who worked on U.S. policy towards North Korea from 1993 to 2002, first as a senior advisor to Ambassador Robert L. Gallucci and then as the coordinator for the implementation of the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework. After leaving the State Department, he was as visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution from 2000 to 2002 and subsequently senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) until 2005. Wit is the co-author of Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis.

From both in and out of government, Robert Carlin has followed North Korea since 1974 and has made 25 trips there. He has served as senior policy advisor at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) from 2002-2006, leading numerous delegations to the North for talks and observing developments in-country. From 1989-2002, he was chief of the Northeast Asia Division in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, U.S. Department of State. During much of that period, he served as Senior Policy Advisor to the Special Ambassador for talks with North Korea, and took part in all phases of US-DPRK negotiations from 1992-2000. From 1971-1989, Carlin was an analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, where he received the Exceptional Analyst Award from the Director of Central Intelligence.