A U.S. policy based on containment and isolation alone only concedes that North Korea will remain nuclear-armed and that its weapons programs will further develop. That, in turn, will undermine stability in East Asia, sow doubts in Tokyo and Seoul about relying too much on the United States for their security and jeopardize cooperation with China. A nuclear North will also undermine Wash­ington’s global disarmament and non-proliferation agenda, particularly when viewed in conjunction with the danger of a nuclear Iran. The threat may become even more direct to U.S. security if the North perfects a long-range missile delivery system or exports fissile material or nuclear technology.

An effective American strategy towards North Korea will require a combination of tough measures with serious dialogue and engagement. “U.S. Strategy Towards North Korea: Rebuilding Dialogue and Engagement,” a new report by Joel S. Wit, discusses current developments in North Korea and, in that context, lays out a realistic set of U.S. objectives and recommendations for dealing with Pyongyang through dialogue and engagement. While that plan focuses on the United States, it should be noted that consultation and cooperation with key allies as well as with China, Russia and the international community will be central to its implementation.

This report is a joint U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS and Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University publication.

Executive Summary: U.S. Strategy Towards North Korea, by Joel S. Wit (USKI: October 2009)

Full Report: “U.S. Strategy Towards North Korea: Rebuilding Dialogue and Engagement”, by Joel S. Wit (USKI: October 2009)

Supplemental Materials: Table 1, Table 2, Table 3

In writing this report, Joel Wit, the principal author, was assisted by a number of prominent experts who provided background papers for this study. These experts included: Bradley Babson, John Feffer, David Von Hippel, Peter Hayes, Karin Lee, Patrick Morgan, William Newcomb, Alan Romberg, Sharon Squassoni, Fred McGoldrick, Lee Sigal, and David Wright. Copies of their background papers can be accessed through the Nautilus Institute and the National Committee for North Korea.

Many thanks to the Ploughshares Fund for their support of this project.

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Joel S. Wit is a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University and an adjunct senior research fellow at the Weatherhead East Asia Institute at Columbia University. Wit is a former State Department official who worked on U.S. policy towards North Korea from 1993 to 2002, first as a senior advisor to Ambassador Robert L. Gallucci and then as the coordinator for the implementation of the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework. After leaving the State Department, he was as visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution from 2000 to 2002 and subsequently senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) until 2005. Wit is the co-author of Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis.

“Flood Across the Border: China’s Disaster Relief Operations and Potential Response to a North Korean Refugee Crisis,” by Drew Thompson and Carla Freeman, considers the planning, capacities and mechanisms for addressing natural disasters and domestic crises in the People’s Republic of China and the implications for Chinese management of a potential crisis involving a rapid and unexpected increase in the volume of North Korean refugees fleeing to Chinese territory. Its focus is on structures and organizations in Jilin Province and its subordinate Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. 

Executive Summary: Flood Across the Border (April 2009) 

Download the Report: Flood Across the Border: China’s Disaster Relief Operations and Potential Response to a North Korean Refugee Crisis, (April 2009) 

This report was co-funded through The Nixon Center, a leading foreign policy research institute founded by President Richard Nixon in 1994.

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Drew Thompson is the Director of China Studies and Starr Senior Fellow at The Nixon Center in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining The Nixon Center, he was the National Director of the China-MSD HIV/AIDS Partnership in Beijing, a 5 year, $30 million HIV/AIDS program established by Merck & Co. and the Chinese Ministry of Health. Mr. Thompson served previously as Assistant Director to the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He also was the President of a Washington, D.C. company that manufactured snack food in Qingdao, China. He lived in Shanghai from 1993 to 1998 where he was the General Manager of a U.S. freight forwarding and logistics firm, overseeing offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing. Mr. Thompson was the founder and Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce Transportation and Logistics Committee in Shanghai and has traveled extensively throughout China in both urban and rural areas. 

Mr. Thompson studied Chinese language at Beijing University in 1990, and was a graduate student in 1992 at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Chinese and American Studies in Nanjing, China. He graduated cum laude with a B.A. in Asian Studies from Hobart College in 1992, and was elected to Phi Beta Kappa. In 2004, Mr. Thompson received an M.A. in Government, with a concentration in Homeland Security, from Johns Hopkins University. 

Carla P. Freeman is the Associate Director of the China Studies Program at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University. Freeman has held various academic positions, including Chair of the program in global studies and international affairs at Alverno College in Milwaukee and Visiting Scholar at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. She has also served as Program Officer for Civil Community with The Johnson Foundation and as a political risk analyst. Freeman holds a Ph.D. in China studies from SAIS.

“The Changing Nature of Foreign Direct Investment in South Korea,”  a three-part series by Arthur Alexander

Foreign direct investment (FDI), defined as sufficient company ownership that provides some degree of managerial control, improves a nation’s productivity and economic growth. Until the 1997 East Asia financial crisis, the Korean government exercised a de facto policy of discouraging inward FDI. However, as part of its acceptance of IMF support to resolve the crisis, the government opened the economy to foreign ownership of domestic business. In the years after the crisis, foreign investment surged. However, despite these changes, Korea still lags other developed and developing countries as a target for FDI. We are investigating the changing nature of FDI into the country, the policy and political responses, and the concerns in the country that may induce a cautious approach by administrators.

In order to understand better the changing nature of Korean inward FDI, we are assembling data broken down by industry, financing method, and type of investor. We will analyze the policy and regulatory implications by considering the domestic industries and companies that may face greater competition; and the government agencies that will be involved together with their regulatory and organizational imperatives. New patterns of FDI create the potential for counterattacks by negatively affected parties. We shall attempt to predict such barriers in advance to alert policymakers and others about possible future problems. We will attempt to understand how the changing nature of FDI into Korea may affect future economic outcomes in ways that may differ from past influences.

The first report examines the long-term economic perspective of FDI in Korea: Foreign Direct Investment in Korea: Trends, Implications, Obstacles (USKI, July 2008).

The second report takes an in-depth look at the trends of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), Korea’s leading source of FDI: Mergers and Acquisitions in Korea: The Leading Edge of Foreign Direct Investment  (USKI, October 2008).

The third report outlines key economic policy implications of Korea’s FDI and M&A trends: Policy Implications of Korea’s Low-Intensity Foreign Direct Investment (USKI, December 2008).

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Arthur J. Alexander, Ph.D., is the Mitsui adjunct professor on Japan at Georgetown University and a professional lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. His experience includes ten years as president of an internationally recognized research institution specializing in Japanese economics, staff member of a leading think tank, advisor and consultant to a wide range of industry and government clients. He has also taught at major universities and has been published in academic journals, magazines, and newspapers. His book on the Japanese economy, In the Shadow of the Miracle, was published by Lexington Books in 2002; and his most recent book, The Arc of Japan’s Economic Development, was published by Routledge (London) in November 2007.

Dr. Alexander joined the Japan Economic Institute in Washington, DC as its president in 1990. At JEI he conducted research on the Japanese economy, industry, technology, and innovation. JEI, a nonprofit research organization supported in part by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ceased active operations at the end of 2000. In 2001, Dr. Alexander received an award from the Japanese Foreign Ministry for “distinguished service” promoting understanding of Japan. He has conducted research directly for the Japanese government and for private companies. He has testified often before the U.S. congress on Japanese and other economic issues. Although he has focused on Japan studies, Dr. Alexander also has published research on the Korean economy.

Dr. Alexander graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1958 with a BS degree in engineering and industrial management. Following service in the U.S. Army, he worked for the IBM Corp. as a systems analyst. He then received a M.Sc. degree in economics from the London School of Economics in 1966 and a Ph.D. in economics from the Johns Hopkins University in 1968.

From 1968 to 1990, Dr. Alexander was a member of the research staff of the Rand Corporation in Santa Monica, California and was the associate head of its economics department from 1977 to 1985. At Rand, he specialized in a wide range of subjects, including Soviet affairs, research and development, weapons acquisition policies, and defense decision making. Dr. Alexander turned to Japanese issues in the 1980s, including studies on trade in services, legal markets, innovation, and defense industry. In 1976-1977, he was a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He was a member of the U.S. Army Science Board for five years, chairing studies on policy analysis, weapons acquisition, and labor requirements. Dr. Alexander was also a member of the faculty and advisory board of the Rand Graduate School and a visiting professor at UCLA.