Filed Under: China, Defense, Democracy, Economy, Human Rights, Immigration, North Korea, Nuclear Issues, Politics, Refugees, Regional Diplomacy, Russia, Six-Party Talks, Social Issues, South Korea, Trade, U.S.-DPRK relations, U.S.-ROK relations, Yearbook

The third edition of the SAIS U.S.-Korea Yearbook chronicles important developments in North and South Korea that characterized their relations with their allies and enemies in 2008. Each chapter was written by SAIS students in the course, “The Two Koreas: Contemporary Research and Record,” in the fall of 2008. Their insights were based not only on extensive reading and study, but also on numerous interviews conducted with government officials, scholars, NGO workers, academics and private sector experts in both Washington and Seoul.

The Yearbook is divided into two parts: South Korea’s Foreign Relations and North Korea’s Foreign Relations. In the first part, student authors explore the dynamic foreign policy changes that were brought about by the Lee Myung-bak administration, and how these policies affected South Korean politics both at home and abroad. In the second part, student authors explore how shifting power dynamics both in the United States, as well as among the member states of the Six-Party Talks, affected North Korea’s foreign relations in 2008.

Download the the full text: SAIS US-Korea Yearbook 2008

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART I: South Korea’s Foreign Relations (5 papers)

Alisher analyzes the changes to South Korea’s foreign policy that occurred when President Lee Myung-bak came to power. In a major break from his predecessors, Lee adopted an aggressive policy toward North Korea that linked economic assistance to its abandonment of its nuclear weapons program, a break that eroded many achievements from past administrations. At the same time, Alisher points to issues where Lee’s foreign policy demonstrated a degree of continuity with his predecessors. Of these, the most notable issues were Lee’s steadfast support of the KORUS FTA which was negotiated under the Roh administration, and the continued transformation of the U.S.-ROK alliance into a security alliance with only modest modification.

Alisher focuses on these three issues to illustrate the divergent responses of the Lee administration to previous policy directions and poses the question as to why this variance exists, especially in light of Lee’s promise for change in his presidential campaign and the subsequent anticipation that he would bring about radical changes in all areas. Additionally, Lee’s party, the conservative GNP, won an absolute majority in the Parliament, providing legislative support and allowing for him to implement broad-based changes. Alisher addresses this puzzle by closely examining politics within the government, between political parties, and in the context of society at large. He argues that the inconsistencies in Lee’s foreign policy directions can be better understood by dispelling the myth of a bipolar political inclination in South Korea, as well as by examining the institutional constraints of Korea’s political structure as a whole.

Michal analyzes the various political, economic and social changes that occurred within the United States and South Korea that worked to prevent the ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) in 2008. He asserts that the victory of Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 presidential elections and his Grand National Party in the 2008 parliamentary elections put strong proponents of the KORUS FTA into power, while at the same time, the Democratic Party’s loss of power deeply influenced its stand on the FTA; thus the party that initially started the trade negotiations quickly became the FTA’s greatest opponent. Similar political obstacles to KORUS FTA ratification arose on the U.S. side as well. Leading up to the November elections, movement on all FTA discussions was deadlocked due to an impasse between the Republican administration and Democratic-majority in Congress. With a full Democratic sweep in the November 2008 elections, Barack Obama became President with his Democratic Party holding majority in both the House and Senate. Although this sweep created the possibility for swift enactment of Obama’s agenda, Democrats have historically opposed FTAs more than their Republican counterparts and key Democratic legislators began to voice heated opposition to the KORUS FTA.

In addition to these high-level political crosscurrents, Michal highlights concerns that arose from civil and business interests in both countries that impacted the ratification process as well. Large protests over U.S. beef imports in Korea manifest into a greater critique of President Lee’s policies in general, and U.S. automakers, trade unions, and beef producers leaned heavily on U.S. congressional members to fight for greater access to Korean markets in an attempt to narrow the seemingly large trade imbalance in these sectors. Despite the failure to get the KORUS FTA ratified in 2008, Michal argues that both sides showed a willingness to make concessions in order to keep the FTA alive, and with greater political stability in 2009, offers hope that ratification is still possible.

Sandy examines the current state of South Korean civil society under Lee Myung-bak. More specifically, she focuses on the ideological chasms found within South Korean civil society organizations, as well as the current and future challenges civil society organizations face in an increasingly disconnected South Korean society. Her analysis highlights that in 2008, cleavages between conservative and progressive groups resulted in two major social movements: candlelight vigils against U.S. beef imports and the North Korean human rights balloon campaign. By focusing on these two civil society movements, Sandy draws conclusions about the relationship between civil society organizations and the Lee Myung-bak administration, as well as South Korea’s relations with the United States and North Korea.

Li-Chih analyzes South Korea’s efforts to improve its image and reputation to international audiences. Surprised at Korea’s low rankings in the Anholt-Gfk Roper Nation Brand Index, President Lee Myung-bak vowed in 2008 to place greater emphasis and resources into the shaping and managing of South Korea’s brand and increasing Korea’s soft power. In Li-Chih’s examination, she evaluates the effectiveness of past nation branding and cultural diplomacy policies and campaigns. Her evaluation of the “Dynamic Korea” campaign designed around World Cup 2002 which evoked positive images in Asia but not in the West, as well as the success of the cultural phenomenon of hallyu (the Korean Wave) in Asia but not the West, reveals the need for country and/or region-specific branding efforts.

Li-Chih also examines the role of cultural diplomacy as a critical tool to increasing South Korea’s soft power. Her analysis includes an evaluation of the three pillars of the Lee administration’s cultural diplomacy policy: the formulation of long term programs, the stimulation of the culture industry, and the creation of a second wave of hallyu. Li-chih argues that although the new government is filled with ambition, Korea’s nation branding and cultural diplomacy policies are very much still in an infant stage and that increased emphasis on actively managing Korea’s brand will only be effective if backed by first-class cultural contents and well-coordinated government policies.

Eduard examines important developments in China’s and Russia’s relations with the Korean peninsula. He argues that China’s hosting of the Summer Olympics and Russia’s invasion of the former Soviet satellite state, Georgia, symbolizes the rise – or at least a rise in assertiveness – of both China and Russia. For Korea this implies a sensitive change in its strategic environment, a change that is being accentuated by an overstretched and financial-crisis weakened ally, the United States.

Eduard’s paper examines how in 2008, China and Russia pursued new efforts to gain access to and cooperation with both North and South Korea. China’s importance in North and South Korea is clearly stronger than Russia’s due to historical and geographic realities in the region. However, while China’s influence has grown incrementally and at a steady pace, Russia’s presence on the peninsula expanded vastly in 2008. Eduard argues that, although the intensified interest in and competition between China and Russia over the two Koreas may place restraints on future China-Russia relations, this competition offers great security benefits to the region as a whole, and substantial benefits to the economic future of the Korean peninsula.

PART II: North Korea’s Foreign Relations (3 papers)

Shin Yon examines the progress made in 2008 with regards to the denuclearization of North Korea. Her paper chronicles North Korea’s implementation of key six-party agreements, and analyzes how the shifting power dynamics among the six-party members affected this process throughout the year. With North Korea failing to meet the December 2007 deadline to submit a full declaration of all its nuclear activities, the tone for the 2008 six-party process was contentious from the start. Despite these rocky beginnings, the United States was able to negotiate a compromise on the format of the declaration, and North Korea submitted its nuclear accounting to the United States and to China, the host of the Six-Party Talks, in late June. As an added gesture, North Korea also toppled a cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear facility.

Despite progress made on disablement, Shin Yon points to deadlock over the issue of verification. Verification was seen as critical to ensuring the accuracy of North Korea’s nuclear declaration, and the United States pushed forward a rigorous draft verification protocol which warranted objections from North Korea, as well as China and Russia. The issue of verification caused North Korea to stall disablement measures, and the U.S. failure to delist North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism (SST) spurred North Korea to not only to halt disablement measures, but began to reverse them as well. Although further concessions were made in order to come to an agreement on verification and prompt North Korea to resume disablement measures, including the delisting of North Korea from the SST, Pyongyang later denied making any such agreement. Amid a grim outlook for sustainability on the deal itself, the six parties gathered in Beijing in early December for the year’s last round of talks, only to fail to come to an agreement on a verification protocol. Shin Yon argues that the latest failure of the Six-Party Talks to adopt a written verification protocol seems to portend an even more precarious path ahead in bilateral and multilateral negotiations with North Korea.

Erin analyzes alternative diplomacy towards North Korea, including food aid, musical diplomacy and Track II exchanges. Amid major concerns about a severe food shortage in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Erin asserts that significant progress in the area of humanitarian assistance to North Korea occurred in 2008, including the resumption of U.S. food assistance for the first time since 2005. Erin’s analysis explores the worsening food shortage in the DPRK and focuses on developments in U.S. humanitarian assistance. Furthermore, it provides an in-depth look at how the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), U.S. government agencies such as the State Department and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and their South Korean and North Korean counterparts are working together to address the shortage, and provides prospects for the continuance of this aid in 2009.

Erin’s analysis also examines the role of cultural exchange and Track II diplomacy in building relations between the two countries. She points to the landmark performance that the New York Philharmonic gave in Pyongyang in February 2008 as a key example. As “musical diplomacy” was a precursor to formal diplomatic relations in the Soviet Union and China, Erin evaluates the role of musical diplomacy in the case of the DPRK. Along similar lines, Erin also examines the role of informal diplomatic efforts or Track II exchanges in U.S.-DPRK relations. She reviews the exchanges that took place in 2008 and the general prospect these meetings have for playing a larger role in impacting formal relations between the United States and North Korea in the future.

Jane examines the slow and quiet progress that was made on North Korean human rights and refugee resettlement in the United States in 2008. Large-scale efforts to increase awareness about the human rights atrocities in North Korea have advanced to a point where governments are both conscious of the issue and have started to include human rights in their dialogue with North Korea. Additionally, the discussion has broadened to include debate and concrete solutions for the safety and security of North Korean refugees. Jane argues that a large portion of today’s debate regarding North Korean refugees, concerns their permanent resettlement. Although South Korea is the country of choice for most defectors, the North Korean Human Rights Act passed into public law by the U.S. Congress in 2004 opened new opportunities for North Korean defectors to resettle in the United States.

Jane’s analysis looks into the North Korean refugee resettlement issue, particularly in the United States. More specifically, it examines the significance and shortcomings of the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004, as well as events in 2008 that impacted North Korean refugee resettlement.